🧠 Intelligence Framework

Surveillance performance and decision support - Operational decision intelligence for outbreak control

πŸ” Filters

Current Rt

1.42

Baseline

Detection Bottleneck

28 days

Tracing Gap

+50%

To 70% target

Outbreak Duration

220 days

Control Target

Rt < 1.0

Vaccination Rate

0.02/day

Optimal (Ο†)

πŸ“Š Charts - Intelligence Analysis

Effective Rt by Intervention

Mortality Reduction by Intervention

🎯 Surveillance Domains Performance & Impact on Rt

Intelligence Domain Current Status Impact on Rt Target Status Operational Action
πŸ” Detection Delay (Ο„DD) 28 days +0.42 Rt 14 days Improve lab capacity 50%
πŸ‘₯ Contact Tracing (pT) 20% +0.38 Rt 70% Train +312 contact tracers
πŸ”Ž Case Ascertainment 71% +0.28 Rt 90% Active case finding in 4 gaps
πŸ§ͺ Lab Confirmation (LCT) 5 days +0.12 Rt 2 days Decentralize testing 60%
πŸ₯ Isolation Delay (Ο„ID) 3 days +0.18 Rt 1 day Expand 200 isolation beds
πŸ—ΊοΈ Spatial Coverage 14/18 districts +0.15 Rt 18/18 districts Cross-border response ops

πŸš€ Intervention Scenarios & Projected Outcomes

Intervention Scenario Peak Reduction Mortality Reduction Final Rt Feasibility Control Achieved?
πŸ“Š Baseline (No Action) 0% 0% 1.42 - ❌ Uncontrolled
⚑ Fast Response (Detection) 18% 13% 1.15 Achievable ⚠️ Marginal
πŸ‘₯ + Tracing (70%) 35% 28% 0.85 Challenging βœ… Controlled
🎯 OPTIMAL (+ Vaccination) 90% 81% 0.42 Optimal βœ…βœ… Excellent

πŸ“‹ DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK - HIERARCHY OF EFFECTIVENESS

πŸ₯‡ HIGHEST IMPACT:

1. Vaccination (Ο†=0.02/day, Ξ΅=0.90)
β†’ Peak reduction: 90%
β†’ Mortality reduction: 81%
β†’ Rt: 1.42 β†’ 0.42

πŸ₯ˆ SECOND PRIORITY:

2. Contact Tracing (pT=70%)
β†’ Peak reduction: 35% (without vaccination)
β†’ Mortality reduction: 28%
β†’ Rt: 1.42 β†’ 0.85

πŸ₯‰ THIRD PRIORITY:

3. Detection Optimization (Ο„DD: 28β†’7 days)
β†’ Peak reduction: 18% (alone)
β†’ Mortality reduction: 13%
β†’ Cost savings: 6%

⚑ SUPPORTING:

4. Isolation Delay (Ο„ID: 3β†’1 day)
β†’ Rt reduction: 0.18
β†’ Mortality reduction: 7%
β†’ Cost savings: 3%