πŸ₯ Isolation Delay

Time from detection to isolation placement - Isolation delay (ID) indicator

πŸ” Filters

Mean Delay

3.8

days

Median Delay

3.2

days

Isolated Cases

5820

Not Isolated

180

Baseline Ο„ID (model)

3 days

Target: 1 day

Peak Reduction

7%

Ο„ID: 3β†’1 day

πŸ“Š Charts

Isolation Status

Delay by Isolation Type

πŸ“Š Figure 4 β€” Effect of Isolation Delay on Outbreak Size (Ο„ID sensitivity)

Ο„ID (days) Peak Reduction vs 7d Ο„H rate Finding
7 days (worst) 0% (reference) 1/(5+7) = 0.083/day ❌ Worst case
5 days Modest 1/(5+5) = 0.100/day ⚠️ Modest improvement
3 days ← CURRENT BASELINE ~5% better than 7d 1/(5+3) = 0.125/day ⚠️ Current performance
1 day ← TARGET βœ… 7% peak reduction 1/(5+1) = 0.167/day βœ… Sharpest decline achievable

Key finding: Curves separate uniformly (unlike detection delay). Ο„ID Rt impact: 3β†’1 day = +0.18 Rt reduction. Complements detection delay β€” detection = who enters pipeline, isolation = how fast removed.

πŸ₯ Isolation Delay by Age Group

Age Group Cases Detected Isolated Mean Delay (days) Median Delay Not Isolated
Infants (0-5) 480 468 2.1 1.8 12
Children (6-17) 540 527 2.3 2.0 13
Young Adults (18-34) 1920 1862 3.5 3.0 58
Adults (35-44) 1080 1047 3.8 3.2 33
Mature Adults (45-54) 600 578 4.0 3.5 22
Seniors (55-64) 280 266 4.3 3.8 14
Elderly (65+) 120 104 4.8 4.2 16